See "Pregnancies averted" tab

Source: Sedgh, Singh, and Hussain 2014, Pg 310, Table 4. Unintended pregnancies lead to the following outcomes in Africa: about 33% abortions, about 14% miscarriages, about 53% unplanned births (of which roughly 2/3rds are "mistimed" births and 1/3rd is an "unwanted" birth). We have not vetted the estimates of Sedgh, Singh, and Hussain 2014.

Source: Bearak et al, 2020 estimates that 37% of unintended pregnancies in sub-Saharan Africa end in abortion

Source: Sedgh, Singh, and Hussain, 2014, “Miscarriages are estimated to equal approximately the sum of 20 percent of live births and 10 percent of induced abortions. The miscarriages that represent 10 percent of all abortions and 20 percent of unplanned births are classified as unintended pregnancies.”

Source: Sedgh, Singh, and Hussain, 2014. These rates of unintended pregnancies are based on “nationally representative Demographic and Health Surveys conducted among women in 64 countries by Macro International, Reproductive Health Surveys conducted in six countries by the Centers for Disease Control, and similar surveys conducted in Brazil and Mexico. Most of these surveys asked women about the intention status of current pregnancies and recent births at the time of conception. For the majority of countries, we calculate the proportion of births that were unplanned among all births in the three years prior to the survey.”

Source: Sedgh, Singh, and Hussain 2014, Pg 310, Table 4. Unintended pregnancies lead to the following outcomes in Africa: about 33% abortions, about 14% miscarriages, about 53% unplanned births (of which roughly 2/3rds are "mistimed" births and 1/3rd is an "unwanted" birth). We have not vetted the estimates of Sedgh, Singh, and Hussain 2014.

Calculation. See above

See 'Benefits for existing children' sheet for the derivation of this figure

See "Income effects" sheet. We take a geometric mean of the estimate of returns to education for women and men.

GiveWell guesstimate. Our best guess is that individuals work for ~40 years

GiveWell guesstimate. Our best guess is that child begins working full-time around 13 years after averted birth on average. This is based on adding 5 to the 8 years estimate from the deworming CEA since children could be under 5 in this setting.

Source: GiveWell's moral weights and discount rate

Source: Based on our Deworming CEA

Source: GiveWell's moral weights and discount rate

Source: World Bank. ( 1 ) United Nations Population Division. World Population Prospects: 2022 Revision; ( 2 ) Statistical databases and publications from national statistical offices; ( 3 ) Eurostat: Demographic Statistics.

Source: IHME GBD 2021

See "Pregnancies averted" sheet

Calculation. Estimate based on total fertility rate in low-income countries, subtracting averted unwanted births, and children who pass away before the age of 20 (using estimate of annual mortality rate under 20 in low SDI from IHME)

GiveWell guesstimate. Intended to capture children having greater consumption due to more resources and the limited evidence of contraception resulting in better physical/cognitive development for children (Maggio, Karra, and Canning, 2023)

See "Income effects" tab

GiveWell guesstimate. We assume there are two main income-earners per household and each account for roughly half of household income.

Calculation. Subtracting projected lifetime unintended pregnancies averted from counterfactual household size.

GiveWell guesstimate. We guess that the duration of benefits lasts 15 years. This estimate likely depends on the age profile of workers. Younger users who receive more education due to modern contraception might receive lifelong economic benefits. In contrast, older users may only receive temporary benefits because they have fewer years left in their career and are less likely to be making long-term investments in their human capital.

Source: GiveWell's moral weights and discount rate

Source: GiveWell's moral weights and discount rate

Calculation. See above

Calculation. See above

Calculation. See above

See 'Heterogeneity across locations' sheet. Source: IHME GBD 2021 and UN IGME 2022. Note that this is maternal deaths from "any cause related to or aggravated by pregnancy or its management (excluding accidental or incidental causes) during pregnancy and childbirth or within 42 days of termination of pregnancy". We cannot apply this directly to the number of live births averted because this ratio applies to all pregnancies. We must recalculate it for unintended pregnancies which is likely to have a different rate of live births, abortions, etc. per pregnancy.

See "Maternal mortality calculations" sheet

See "Maternal mortality calculations" sheet

See "Maternal mortality calculations" sheet

Source: GiveWell's Facility-based MNH BOTEC

Units of value from less maternal mortality due to fewer unwanted births and abortions per year of modern contraception

Calculation. See above

See "Maternal mortality calculations" sheet

See "Mortality benefits from improved spacing"

Source: GiveWell's Facility-based MNH BOTEC

Calculation. Note: in general, we are not discounting for the time between a potential mistimed birth and the later intended birth. That's because we do not think it would make a large difference. We would only be discounting for temporal uncertainty (1.4% discount rate) and the gap between these potential births is likely <10 years.

Source: GiveWell's moral weights and discount rate

Calculation. See above.

GiveWell guesstimate. We based this on our Maternal Health Initiatives CEA which estimated the DALYs lost based on the prevalence and duration of common health conditions brought about by pregnancy. Also evidence that maternal morbidity being associated with high fertility rates - bone density loss, tooth loss, etc. See Conde-Agudelo et al. 2006 and Conde-Agudelo et al. 2012.

Calculation. See above.

GiveWell guesstimate. We use short-spaced pregnacies as a proxy for benefits of better-timed births. Bauserman et al (2020) Table 4 shows that short-spaced pregnancies are associated with ~30% higher rates of adverse delivery outcomes. We adjust this estimate downward by 40% to account for confounding factors since Bauserman et al (2020) is observational and that not all mistimed pregnancies are short-spaced. We also subjectively consider additional evidence on maternal morbidity being associated with short interpregnancy intervals - anemia, bone density loss, tooth loss, etc. See also Conde-Agudelo et al. 2006 and Conde-Agudelo et al. 2012.

Calculation. See above.

Source: We adjust the value of .121 DALYs lost per abortion from Higashi et al. (2014) Table 1 downwards by 55% to avoid double-counting DALYs from maternal deaths based on the deaths and DALYs burdens reported in Table 2. In Table 2, they estimate 34 deaths due to abortion in LMICs and 2128 DALYs lost. Assuming each maternal death loses 35 DALYs, this implies that 45% of the burden of abortion is attributable to morbidity rather than mortality.

Calculation. See above.

GiveWell guesstimate. We assume the burden of miscarriage (also known as ‘spontaneous abortion’) is low. For instance, a WHO paper reports that “Spontaneous abortions seldom have severe complications and are rarely fatal. No attempt has been made to quantify the burden of disability and deaths due to spontaneous abortion for the GBD 2000" (source). Any increase in risk of maternal mortality from miscarriages are already incorporated into the maternal mortality estimates. We assume it has disability weight ~2/3 of disability from abortion, which includes unsafe abortions.

GiveWell guesstimate. Includes severe maternal "near miss" mortalities and disability associated with being pregnant.

Calculation. See above.

See "Heterogeneity across locations" sheet. Source: IHME GBD 2021 and UN IGME 2022

See "Mortality benefits from improved birth timing" sheet

Source: GiveWell's moral weights and discount rate

See "Heterogeneity across locations" sheet. Source: IHME GBD 2021 and UN IGME 2022

See "Mortality benefits from improved spacing" sheet

Calculation. Note that we subtract out the neonatal deaths from the under-5 deaths averted to avoid double-counting.

Source: GiveWell's moral weights and discount rate

GiveWell guesstimate. We intended this to be consistent with long-term income increase benefits from our top charities. This is based on the .25 ratio of value from projected income effects to value of lives averted used in the vitamin A supplementation CEA.

GiveWell guesstimate. We intended this to be consistent with development benefits from our top charities. Seasonal malaria chemoprevention applies a 9% adjustment for child morbidity, New Incentives applies a 6% adjustment, and Vitamin A supplementation applies a 6% adjustment for morbidity.

GiveWell guesstimate. We're setting this to be consistent with medical costs averted from our top charities (see our figure for seasonal malaria chemoprevention).